The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-22 22:06 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionDOWN
confidence54%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE outperforms SPY by >0.5 percentage points over the 48h window, or SAU-US nuclear deal is rescinded/reinterpreted as escalatory
resolves48h
gradeopen
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryXLEvs
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