The call FLAT
SPY matches or slightly outperforms over 24h; if market opens with VIX <18 and HY spreads <285 bps (risk-on regime intact), SPY stays flat-to-slight-up
Made 2026-07-30 18:28 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionFLAT
confidence51%
reasoning75% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifSPY closes >1.5% down over 24h, OR VIX spikes >25% from current and credit widens >20 bps intraday
resolves24h
gradeopen
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryVIXvs
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