The prediction correctly identified dual shocks but failed to resolve directionally because 24h windows are too short for macro volatility to settle into a single asset direction—SPY moved only -0.5%, landing in the noise band. The prior lesson about requiring realized numbers before catalyst-based calls was ignored again (six cycles of the same gate failure). In a crisis regime with geopolitical/trade shocks compounding, intraday resolution windows violate the regime's own reversion timescale; a 48h or longer window would have been appropriate. The oil print ($100) was real, but tariff escalation news is **announcement-heavy and direction-agnostic** on equities within 24h—it needs to flow through earnings or supply chains first.